Tuesday, July 14, 2009

What is the real unemployment?

Mort Zuckerman writing in the Wall Street Journal gives us 10 reasons why the unemployment numbers indicate the economy is in even worse shape than we believe. Here are those 10 reasons:
  1. June's total assumed 185,000 people at work who probably were not. The government could not identify them; it made an assumption about trends. But many of the mythical jobs are in industries that have absolutely no job creation, e.g., finance. When the official numbers are adjusted over the next several months, June will look worse.
  2. More companies are asking employees to take unpaid leave. These people don't count on the unemployment roll.
  3. No fewer than 1.4 million people wanted or were available for work in the last 12 months but were not counted. Why? Because they hadn't searched for work in the four weeks preceding the survey.
  4. The number of workers taking part-time jobs due to the slack economy, a kind of stealth underemployment, has doubled in this recession to about nine million, or 5.8% of the work force. Add those whose hours have been cut to those who cannot find a full-time job and the total unemployed rises to 16.5%, putting the number of involuntarily idle in the range of 25 million.
  5. The average work week for rank-and-file employees in the private sector, roughly 80% of the work force, slipped to 33 hours. That's 48 minutes a week less than before the recession began, the lowest level since the government began tracking such data 45 years ago. Full-time workers are being downgraded to part time as businesses slash labor costs to remain above water, and factories are operating at only 65% of capacity. If Americans were still clocking those extra 48 minutes a week now, the same aggregate amount of work would get done with 3.3 million fewer employees, which means that if it were not for the shorter work week the jobless rate would be 11.7%, not 9.5% (which far exceeds the 8% rate projected by the Obama administration).
  6. The average length of official unemployment increased to 24.5 weeks, the longest since government began tracking this data in 1948. The number of long-term unemployed (i.e., for 27 weeks or more) has now jumped to 4.4 million, an all-time high.
  7. The average worker saw no wage gains in June, with average compensation running flat at $18.53 an hour.
  8. The goods producing sector is losing the most jobs -- 223,000 in the last report alone.
  9. The prospects for job creation are equally distressing. The likelihood is that when economic activity picks up, employers will first choose to increase hours for existing workers and bring part-time workers back to full time.
  10. Many unemployed workers looking for jobs once the recovery begins will discover that jobs as good as the ones they lost are almost impossible to find because many layoffs have been permanent. Instead of shrinking operations, companies have shut down whole business units or made sweeping structural changes in the way they conduct business. General Motors and Chrysler, closed hundreds of dealerships and reduced brands. Citigroup and Bank of America cut tens of thousands of positions and exited many parts of the world of finance.

This is why people are getting angry at Mr. Obama. He globetrots around the world being adored by foreigners while sticking to his plan to remake America by taxing and spending us into oblivion. He flies into a flyover state to get face-time with our national past-time. What does this have to do with his job? Meanwhile, unemployment is spiraling out of control and he doesn't seem to be doing anything about it. In fact, he says that he's done everything he plans on doing because the stim bill is going to work - despite the fact that unemployment has already exceeded the percentage he set as a high if we passed the bill.

Read the rest of Zuckerman's piece to get an eyeful of why things are probably only going to get worse.

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