100 Days

It’s 100 days until the election that will determine the fate of the United States of America.  Will we be just another failed socialist state or will we continue being that bright light burning on the top of the hill?

I don’t do polling. I read polls.  I’m a mathematician that knows statistics are no better than the person doing them.  In the case of political polls, this is not so good.  I’m a JFK Democrat.  In other words I’m a right wing radical member of the Tea Party.  Regardless, I do have common sense and I try to use it.

Understanding history also helps, today I am convinced that Romney will have a resounding victory.  32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running 5 points ahead in the polls -- exactly where Obama was at this time 4 years ago. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient-that common sense I was talking about. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger for Mr. Obama.  

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60's. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama's biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won't happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. I'm a small businessman.  I know literally hundreds of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends voted for Obama 4 years ago to "give someone different a chance." I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn't listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn't contraception. It's having a job to pay for contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children's future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up.

Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?

Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying "I didn't vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him today."

Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts and basic common sense tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I'll give Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

We may not be able to fix stupid, but we don’t have to reelect it!